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    If 'outlandish' hypotheses are defined by low prior proba... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→Outlandish theistic hypotheses should be assigned lower probability than Pascal's God.

    If 'outlandish' hypotheses are defined by low prior probability, the Mugger scenario (Bostrom, Yudkowsky) shows that even vanishingly small priors can be overwhelmed by sufficiently large utility multipliers.

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    1 reason for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

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    Reason for
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    • 1.Expected value calculations require multiplying probability by utility; mathematically, large utilities can dominate small probabilities in determining rational choice.
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    • 2.If we reject Pascal's Mugging, we must explain why some low-probability, high-stakes scenarios (asteroid strikes, existential risks) rationally demand resources.
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    • 3.Priors express epistemic uncertainty, not metaphysical impossibility; distinguishing 'outlandish' from merely 'unlikely' requires independent justification.
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    Reasons Against

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    Reason against
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    • 1.Unbounded utility functions permit adversarial exploitation; rational decision theory should be robust against agents who claim arbitrarily large payoffs.
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    • 2.Prior probability assignments already encode our best judgment about plausibility; allowing utilities to override them abandons the role of evidence.
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    • 3.Real-world agents face resource constraints and opportunity costs; paying a mugger prevents investing in scenarios with better evidential support and comparable stakes.
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    Key Terms

    Eliezer Yudkowsky(as a philosophical authority)
    A researcher and writer focused on artificial intelligence risks and how to make good decisions when dealing with very unlikely but extremely important outcomes.
    Nick Bostrom(as a philosophical authority)
    A contemporary philosopher known for thinking deeply about extreme scenarios, artificial intelligence risks, and decision-making under uncertainty.
    Outlandish hypotheses(in epistemology)
    Ideas or scenarios that seem extremely unlikely or far-fetched.
    Prior probability(Used to argue that theism's low prior probability is not overcome by ambiguous or absent evidence)
    The intrinsic probability of a hypothesis before taking any evidence into account
    The Mugger scenario(in decision theory and philosophy of rationality)
    A thought experiment where an imaginary mugger demands money, claiming they have an unbelievably small chance of having enormous power to help or harm you—raising the question of whether tiny probabilities of huge outcomes should change your behavior.
    Utility multiplier(in decision theory and ethics)
    A number that represents how much something matters or how much benefit/harm it could cause—the bigger the number, the more it should influence your decision.

    Connections

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    Natural Theology1 linked

    Related

    Expected value calculations require multiplying probability by utility; mathemat...If we reject Pascal's Mugging, we must explain why some low-probability, high-st...Outlandish theistic hypotheses should be assigned lower probability than Pascal'...Prior probability assignments already encode our best judgment about plausibilit...

    Details

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    Edits
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    +3 moreShow less
    Priors express epistemic uncertainty, not metaphysical impossibility; distinguis...Real-world agents face resource constraints and opportunity costs; paying a mugg...Unbounded utility functions permit adversarial exploitation; rational decision t...