Skip to content
Carmelics
TopicsThinkersChangesContributorsLoading account…

    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

    Navigate

    • Topics
    • Search
    • Recent Changes
    • Contribute
    • How It Works
    • Glossary
    • Thinkers
    • Contributors
    • About
    • Statistics
    • Terms
    • Privacy

    Database

    Statements
    —
    Perspectives
    —
    Topics
    —

    Press ? for keyboard shortcuts

    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    Outlandish theistic hypotheses should be assigned lower p... — Carmelics
    Home/Natural Theology
    HistoryEditSee Inverse

    Outlandish theistic hypotheses should be assigned lower probability than Pascal's God.

    Natural Theology
    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    2 reasons against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Some theistic hypotheses have no backing of tradition.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Hypotheses with no backing of tradition lack epistemic support and may be dismissed.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Pascal's God has the backing of a long religious tradition.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Epistemic probability should track evidence and coherence, not cultural longevity or institutional backing.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.A hypothesis endorsed by millions for centuries (e.g., geocentrism) can still be less probable than a newer, better-supported rival.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Privileging Pascal's God via tradition commits the argumentum ad antiquitatem fallacy, confusing historical persistence with epistemic warrant.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reason against 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Diderot's objection establishes that Pascal's Wager applies with equal logical force to any maximally rewarding deity, including novel ones.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.If 'outlandish' hypotheses are defined by low prior probability, the Mugger scenario (Bostrom, Yudkowsky) shows that even vanishingly small priors can be overwhelmed by sufficiently large utility multipliers.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Therefore, the wager's dominance structure cannot be stabilized by assigning lower priors to non-traditional deities without independently justifying those priors on evidential, not traditional, grounds.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Sign in or register to share your perspective on this statement.

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.

    Topics

    Natural Theology

    Related

    A hypothesis endorsed by millions for centuries (e.g., geocentrism) can still be...Diderot's objection establishes that Pascal's Wager applies with equal logical f...Epistemic probability should track evidence and coherence, not cultural longevit...Hypotheses with no backing of tradition lack epistemic support and may be dismis...
    +5 moreShow less
    If 'outlandish' hypotheses are defined by low prior probability, the Mugger scen...Pascal's God has the backing of a long religious tradition.Privileging Pascal's God via tradition commits the argumentum ad antiquitatem fa...Some theistic hypotheses have no backing of tradition.Therefore, the wager's dominance structure cannot be stabilized by assigning low...

    Similar

    Pascal's Wager assumes reason cannot decide between theistic and non-t...78%There may be hypotheses other than source physicalism that fit the evi...78%When intrinsic probability of theism is sufficiently low, the evidence...77%Various other theistic hypotheses (e.g., non-Catholic conceptions of G...76%

    Source

    AI-extracted1/3 agreementValid
    SEP: pascal-wager
    View source passageHide passage
    In response, some authors argue that in such a competition among various possible deities for one’s belief, some are more probable than others. Although there may be ties among the expected utilities—all infinite—for believing in various ones among them, their respective probabilities can be used as tie-breakers. Schlesinger (1994, 90) offers this principle: “In cases where the mathematical expectations are infinite, the criterion for choosing the outcome to bet on is its probability”. (Note tha
    Extraction notes

    Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (1 for, 2 against)
    Edits
    1 edit