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    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
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    Legal fact-finding already relies on probabilistic infere... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→A finding of liability based on bare statistical evidence is unsafe and therefore should not be entered.

    Legal fact-finding already relies on probabilistic inference from testimonial and physical evidence, making bare statistics categorically distinct only in surface form.

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    1 reason for
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    Reasons For

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    Reason for
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    • 1.Judges assess witness credibility by weighing consistency, motive, and corroboration—a process functionally equivalent to Bayesian updating on evidence reliability.
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    • 2.Both case-specific evidence and statistical evidence require inference beyond direct observation; neither provides certainty, only rational degree of belief.
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    • 3.Excluding statistics while accepting eyewitness testimony creates arbitrary epistemic inconsistency, since both involve probabilistic inference from incomplete information.
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    Reasons Against

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    Reason against
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    • 1.Case-specific evidence permits adversarial testing of its application to the defendant; statistics invite conclusion without testing the inference mechanism itself.
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    • 2.Testimonial evidence engages narrative causation connecting evidence to the specific act charged; base rates describe population frequencies, not causal mechanisms in this case.
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    • 3.Legal fact-finding privileges individualized judgment because defendants have a due process right to be judged on their particular circumstances, not aggregated probabilities.
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    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedJustice & Punishment1 linked

    Related

    A finding of liability based on bare statistical evidence is unsafe and therefor...Both case-specific evidence and statistical evidence require inference beyond di...Case-specific evidence permits adversarial testing of its application to the def...Excluding statistics while accepting eyewitness testimony creates arbitrary epis...
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    Judges assess witness credibility by weighing consistency, motive, and corrobora...Legal fact-finding privileges individualized judgment because defendants have a ...Testimonial evidence engages narrative causation connecting evidence to the spec...

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    claim
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    2 (1 for, 1 against)
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