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    Carmelics

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    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    Home/Original/inverse
    See Original
    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Legal fact-finding already relies on probabilistic inference from testimonial and physical evidence, making bare statistics categorically distinct only in surface form.

    ?Set your confidence on the premises below to see your aggregate.

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Case-specific evidence permits adversarial testing of its application to the defendant; statistics invite conclusion without testing the inference mechanism itself.
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      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Testimonial evidence engages narrative causation connecting evidence to the specific act charged; base rates describe population frequencies, not causal mechanisms in this case.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Legal fact-finding privileges individualized judgment because defendants have a due process right to be judged on their particular circumstances, not aggregated probabilities.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Judges assess witness credibility by weighing consistency, motive, and corroboration—a process functionally equivalent to Bayesian updating on evidence reliability.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.Both case-specific evidence and statistical evidence require inference beyond direct observation; neither provides certainty, only rational degree of belief.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.Excluding statistics while accepting eyewitness testimony creates arbitrary epistemic inconsistency, since both involve probabilistic inference from incomplete information.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

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