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    Nelson Goodman's new riddle shows induction admits rival,... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→The inductive justification of induction has value as a consistency check on existing beliefs, even if it cannot persuade skeptics or counterinductivists.

    Nelson Goodman's new riddle shows induction admits rival, mutually inconsistent extrapolations equally self-consistent, so internal coherence fails to discriminate valid from invalid inductive schemes.

    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    1 reason against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Grue and bleen predicates are genuinely projectible under their own internal logic, generating identical empirical predictions as green/blue.
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    • 2.No formal criterion of simplicity, conservatism, or coherence can non-arbitrarily prefer standard induction over grue-based alternatives without circular reasoning.
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    • 3.If two inductive schemes yield identical observable consequences yet contradict each other, coherence alone cannot determine which is rationally justified.
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
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    • 1.Grue-predicates are artificially time-indexed constructions; natural language and cognitive habits make green/blue more primitive and thus legitimately preferred.
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    • 2.Goodman's problem shows coherence is insufficient but doesn't prove it's irrelevant—projectibility may require coherence plus entrenchment or evolutionary fit.
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    • 3.The riddle assumes induction must be justified purely internally; external constraints (causal realism, reference to mind-independent properties) may resolve the ambiguity.
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    Key Terms

    Discriminate (in philosophy)(describing how internal coherence fails to tell us which inductive schemes are valid)
    To distinguish or tell the difference between two things based on some standard or criterion.
    Extrapolation(as a criticism of assuming the universe must have a supernatural cause)
    Drawing a conclusion that goes beyond what the evidence actually supports; making a guess that stretches further than the facts allow.
    Inductive scheme(as what the riddle shows we cannot evaluate using logical consistency alone)
    A systematic method or rule for drawing general conclusions from specific examples and observations.
    Mutually inconsistent(describing how rival extrapolations conflict with one another)
    Two things that cannot both be true at the same time because they contradict each other.
    Nelson Goodman(the philosopher whose theory is being discussed)
    A 20th-century American philosopher who developed theories about how symbols (like words, pictures, and artworks) work and mean things.
    Self-consistent(describing how each extrapolation seems logically sound on its own)
    Logically coherent and free from internal contradictions—all the parts fit together without conflicting.
    The new riddle of induction(the main topic of the statement)
    A famous puzzle that challenges the idea that we can reliably predict the future based on past observations—it shows that the same evidence can support completely opposite conclusions.
    Valid (in logic)(Whether the logical steps actually work)
    When the reasoning in an argument follows the rules of logic correctly, so if the starting points are true, the conclusion must be true.
    induction(Offered as the mechanism behind empirical universality.)
    The empirical method by which observations are generalized into rules; yields only comparative or assumed universality, not strict universality.
    internal coherence(Used by moral skeptics to argue that coherence provides no evidence of correspondence to external moral facts.)
    The property of a set of beliefs being mutually consistent and mutually supporting within the set, without reference to anything outside the set.

    Connections

    2 topics

    Truth & Knowledge1 linkedSkepticism1 linked

    Related

    Goodman's problem shows coherence is insufficient but doesn't prove it's irrelev...Grue and bleen predicates are genuinely projectible under their own internal log...

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    2 (1 for, 1 against)
    Edits
    1 edit
    Grue-predicates are artificially time-indexed constructions; natural language an...
    If two inductive schemes yield identical observable consequences yet contradict ...
    +3 moreShow less
    No formal criterion of simplicity, conservatism, or coherence can non-arbitraril...The inductive justification of induction has value as a consistency check on exi...The riddle assumes induction must be justified purely internally; external const...