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    Probabilistic causation (Suppes, Cartwright) allows cause... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→A causal basis for a disposition D is a property or property-complex P such that, given the laws of nature, whenever an object x has P and undergoes the characteristic stimulus of D, it is causally necessary that x exhibits the characteristic manifestation of D.

    Probabilistic causation (Suppes, Cartwright) allows causes to raise the probability of effects without making them causally necessary.

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    Reasons For

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    • 1.Many real causal relations in science (smoking→cancer, lightning→fire) involve statistical patterns, not deterministic necessity.
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    • 2.Probabilistic causation avoids the implausible requirement that genuine causes guarantee their effects in every instance.
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    • 3.This framework accommodates genuine causation in indeterministic systems, including quantum mechanics and open biological systems.
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    Reasons Against

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    • 1.Probability-raising alone cannot distinguish causation from mere correlation or common causes (confounding variables).
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    • 2.If C raises probability of E but doesn't necessitate it, competing explanations of E's occurrence become radically underdetermined.
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    • 3.The framework struggles with cases where a cause lowers overall probability of effect but acts through specific causal pathways (Simpson's paradox analogs).
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    Related

    A causal basis for a disposition D is a property or property-complex P such that...If C raises probability of E but doesn't necessitate it, competing explanations ...Many real causal relations in science (smoking→cancer, lightning→fire) involve s...Probabilistic causation avoids the implausible requirement that genuine causes g...
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    Probability-raising alone cannot distinguish causation from mere correlation or ...The framework struggles with cases where a cause lowers overall probability of e...This framework accommodates genuine causation in indeterministic systems, includ...

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