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    Carmelics

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    Home/Original/inverse
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    Inverse View

    It is not the case that Probabilistic causation (Suppes, Cartwright) allows causes to raise the probability of effects without making them causally necessary.

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    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
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    • 1.Probability-raising alone cannot distinguish causation from mere correlation or common causes (confounding variables).
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    • 2.If C raises probability of E but doesn't necessitate it, competing explanations of E's occurrence become radically underdetermined.
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    • 3.The framework struggles with cases where a cause lowers overall probability of effect but acts through specific causal pathways (Simpson's paradox analogs).
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    Reasons Against

    1 perspective
    Reason against
    ?
    • 1.Many real causal relations in science (smoking→cancer, lightning→fire) involve statistical patterns, not deterministic necessity.
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    • 2.Probabilistic causation avoids the implausible requirement that genuine causes guarantee their effects in every instance.
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    • 3.This framework accommodates genuine causation in indeterministic systems, including quantum mechanics and open biological systems.
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