When the outcome is uncertain, rational beings ought to c... — Carmelics

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When the outcome is uncertain, rational beings ought to choose in accordance with what is typically nature's purpose.

Consequentialism Moral Responsibility

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2 reasons against

Reasons For

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Reason for

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1.Humans rarely can know future outcomes with certainty.
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2.Experience reveals what usually happens in the course of nature.
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3.Aligning choice with nature's usual purpose is the appropriate substitute for knowledge of the actual outcome.
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Reasons Against

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Reason against 1 of 2

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1.Expected utility theory shows that rational choice under uncertainty requires weighting outcomes by probability, not deference to typical natural ends.
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2.Aligning with nature's 'usual purpose' systematically ignores variance and tail risks that a rational agent is obligated to consider (Savage, Foundations of Statistics).
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3.A decision procedure that ignores outcome magnitudes in favor of typicality can mandate choices that maximally harm agents in non-typical cases.
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Reason against 2 of 2

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