Patrick Maher is an American philosopher of science who spent his career at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He is best known for his work on Bayesian epistemology, inductive logic, and the foundations of probability, particularly his pragmatic defense of Bayesian reasoning in his book Betting on Theories (1993). He has also made notable contributions to debates on probabilistic abduction and its advantages over standard Bayesian updating.
Authored Betting on Theories (1993), advancing a pragmatic foundation for Bayesian confirmation theory
Developed arguments for probabilistic abduction as a superior alternative to strict Bayesian conditionalization
Contributed to the formal analysis of convergence-to-truth properties of competing inference rules
Advanced the philosophical foundations of inductive logic and subjective probability
A loss in one respect may be outweighed by a benefit in another
premiseAdvantages not expressible in monetary terms can still be rationally decisive
premiseApproaching the truth faster—assigning probability above a threshold to the true hypothesis more quickly—is an advantage that should factor into choosing an inference rule
premiseApproaching the truth faster (assigning high probability to the true hypothesis more quickly) is a benefit not readily expressed in monetary terms but should be taken into account when choosing an inference rule
A probabilistic version of abduction may perform better than Bayes' rule in our world by approaching the truth faster
claimProbabilistic abduction may be preferable to Bayes' rule as an inference rule
premiseProbabilistic abduction approaches the truth faster than Bayes' rule on average in our world