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    Posen's 1993 analysis shows that post-imperial power vacu... — Carmelics
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    Challenges→The Yugoslavian and Rwandan disasters were not initially Prisoner's Dilemmas; most people on either side did not begin by preferring the destruction of the other group to mutual cooperation.

    Posen's 1993 analysis shows that post-imperial power vacuums create genuine PD structures through rational security calculations, not merely elite manipulation.

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    Reasons For

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    • 1.Post-Soviet states genuinely faced security dilemmas: NATO expansion created mutual mistrust independent of any leader's strategic narrative.
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    • 2.Security competition emerged without coordinating elites; rational actors independently pursued arms and alliances when power vacuums appeared.
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    • 3.Structural incentives (anarchy + uncertainty about intentions) generate PD outcomes predictably, consistent across different regional contexts post-1989.
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    Reasons Against

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    • 1.Elites in Russia and Eastern Europe actively framed security threats rhetorically; Putin's narratives shaped threat perception, not mere rational calculation.
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    • 2.Cooperative institutional alternatives existed (OSCE expansion, confidence-building) but were abandoned by choice, suggesting elite preference over structural necessity.
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    • 3.Many post-imperial transitions (Czech-Poland, Hungary-Romania) avoided security dilemmas, suggesting contingent elite decisions rather than inevitable PD structures.
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    Cooperative institutional alternatives existed (OSCE expansion, confidence-build...Elites in Russia and Eastern Europe actively framed security threats rhetoricall...Many post-imperial transitions (Czech-Poland, Hungary-Romania) avoided security ...Post-Soviet states genuinely faced security dilemmas: NATO expansion created mut...
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    Security competition emerged without coordinating elites; rational actors indepe...Structural incentives (anarchy + uncertainty about intentions) generate PD outco...The Yugoslavian and Rwandan disasters were not initially Prisoner's Dilemmas; mo...

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