Skip to content
Carmelics
TopicsThinkersChangesContributorsLoading account…

    Carmelics

    A reasoning platform. Break down any belief into clear reasons, explore both sides, and weigh the evidence honestly.

    Navigate

    • Topics
    • Search
    • Recent Changes
    • Contribute
    • How It Works
    • Glossary
    • Thinkers
    • Contributors
    • About
    • Statistics
    • Terms
    • Privacy

    Database

    Statements
    —
    Perspectives
    —
    Topics
    —

    Press ? for keyboard shortcuts

    LoyalLoyalJusticeJustice
    Made withinDC&Austin
    Statements
    321,452
    Perspectives
    108,905
    Topics
    42
    The fortune teller's predictive accuracy can be explained... — Carmelics
    Home/Free Will & Foreknowledge
    HistoryEditSee Inverse

    The fortune teller's predictive accuracy can be explained without appealing to knowledge of the player's future choice.

    Free Will & Foreknowledge
    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    2 reasons against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.Compatibilism holds that free will is compatible with deterministic prediction.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.The fortune teller can predict the player's choice based solely on relevant knowledge of the player's past or present behavior or state of mind.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Alvin Plantinga's 'middle knowledge' framework holds that God's foreknowledge of free acts cannot be grounded solely in causal-historical facts about agents.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.If accurate prediction of genuinely free choices requires knowledge of counterfactuals of freedom, then present behavioral data is insufficient to ground such predictions.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 3.The fortune teller's systematic accuracy over genuinely open futures thus implies access to something beyond present-state causal inference.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Reason against 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Peter van Inwagen argues that in indeterministic contexts, no amount of prior physical information logically entails a specific future choice.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    • 2.If the fortune teller's predictions track choices that are not determined by past or present states, then explanatory appeal to behavioral data faces a logical gap, not merely an epistemic one.
      ?

      Think about whether this reason is strong or weak

    Sign in or register to share your perspective on this statement.

    Next step

    Based on where you are in your exploration

    Strongest counterpoint
    Explore the most compelling reason on the other side.

    Topics

    Free Will & Foreknowledge

    Key Terms

    knowledge(Distinguished from mere true belief, which may be the product of indoctrination and need not exercise deliberative capacities.)
    Justified true belief — true belief that has been arrived at through the exercise of deliberative capacities, including comparison of and deliberation among alternatives.

    Connections

    1 topic

    Causation1 linked

    Related

    Alvin Plantinga's 'middle knowledge' framework holds that God's foreknowledge of...Compatibilism holds that free will is compatible with deterministic prediction.If accurate prediction of genuinely free choices requires knowledge of counterfa...If the fortune teller's predictions track choices that are not determined by pas...
    +3 moreShow less
    Peter van Inwagen argues that in indeterministic contexts, no amount of prior ph...The fortune teller can predict the player's choice based solely on relevant know...

    Similar

    The fortune teller's accurate prediction is explicable without positin...90%The fortune teller can predict the player's choice based solely on rel...90%The fortune teller accurately predicts the outcome of the player's cho...89%What the fortune teller predicts is the result of the player's choice,...89%

    Source

    AI-extracted1/3 agreementValid
    SEP: causation-backwards
    View source passageHide passage
    Two opposite arguments for what the player should decide can be given. Assuming the player has a free will it seems rational to say that the fortune teller cannot in principle predict what the player is going to do. When the player makes her choice, it is already determinate whether box \(B\) contains 1,000,000 dollars or nothing. Therefore her choice cannot be affected by the fortune teller’s prediction, and she would be better off by selecting both boxes, hoping that there already is 1,000,000
    Extraction notes

    Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks

    Details

    The fortune teller's systematic accuracy over genuinely open futures thus implie...
    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (1 for, 2 against)
    Edits
    1 edit