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    Uncertainty in epistemic states cannot be eliminated even... — Carmelics
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    Uncertainty in epistemic states cannot be eliminated even with infinite past observations

    Skepticism
    ?Rate how convincing each reason is below to see the overall strength.
    1 reason for
    2 reasons against

    Reasons For

    1 perspective
    Reason for
    ?
    • 1.No matter how many observations of a system are made, there will always be a set of trajectories in model state space indistinguishable from the actual trajectory of the target system
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    • 2.Even with infinite past observations, the unknown ontological state of the target system means epistemic uncertainty cannot be fully resolved
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    Reasons Against

    2 perspectives
    Reason against 1 of 2
    ?
    • 1.The argument conflates model underdetermination with ontological indeterminacy: the existence of indistinguishable trajectories in model space does not entail that the actual system lacks a determinate state.
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    • 2.Laplace's demon thought experiment establishes that a being with complete positional and momentum data could compute all future states, meaning epistemic limits reflect computational finitude, not in-principle irresolvability.
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    • 3.Distinguishing computational from principled uncertainty undermines the claim's universality, since chaos theory describes sensitivity to initial conditions, not the metaphysical unavailability of those conditions.
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    Reason against 2 of 2
    ?
    • 1.Peirce's convergence thesis holds that the limit of infinite scientific inquiry converges on truth, making residual uncertainty asymptotically negligible rather than ineliminable.
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    • 2.If epistemic uncertainty approaches zero as a mathematical limit under infinite observation, the practical and theoretical distinction between 'eliminated' and 'asymptotically eliminated' collapses for any finite evidentiary purpose.
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    Related

    Distinguishing computational from principled uncertainty undermines the claim's ...Even with infinite past observations, the unknown ontological state of the targe...If epistemic uncertainty approaches zero as a mathematical limit under infinite ...Laplace's demon thought experiment establishes that a being with complete positi...
    +3 moreShow less
    No matter how many observations of a system are made, there will always be a set...Peirce's convergence thesis holds that the limit of infinite scientific inquiry ...The argument conflates model underdetermination with ontological indeterminacy: ...

    Similar

    Even with infinite past observations, the unknown ontological state of...80%Agents can only act on their current epistemic state, i.e., their know...76%Evolutionary epistemology faces a serious unresolved problem74%The epistemic model has a single state w where the strategy profile σ(...74%

    Source

    AI-extracted1/3 agreementValid
    SEP: chaos
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    Of course, we do not have perfect models. But even if we did, they are unlikely to live up to our intuitions about them (Judd and Smith 2001; Judd and Smith 2004). For example, no matter how many observations of a system are made, there still will be a set of trajectories in the model state space that are indistinguishable from the actual trajectory of the target system. Indeed, even for infinite past observations, we cannot eliminate the uncertainty in the epistemic states given some unknown on
    Extraction notes

    Validity: Extracted via Max plan + API grounding/validity checks

    Details

    Type
    claim
    Perspectives
    3 (1 for, 2 against)
    Edits
    1 edit